Sunday 4th October 2026
3.05 Longchamp – (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) (G1) (1m 4f)
We have sixteen runners going to post in this year’s renewal of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and at the time of writing, we’re currently on course for a rare good-ground renewal. DARYZ won last year’s race for Francis-Henri Graffard, and I think we could see a bold bid from him to retain his crown under Mickael Barzalona. Since his success last year, he won back-to-back Group 1s at this track in April and May, and most recently beat the re-opposing Bay City Roller comfortably by a length and three-quarters in the Group 2 Prix Foy. That rival was coming into the race having just won the Group 1 Coronation Cup by ten lengths, giving the form a very strong reel. The Graffard-trained Sea The Stars sets a very high standard at the top of the market here, and it may take a huge effort to stop him from following up here.
I’ve also tried my hand with an each-way play in the race, and I’ve done so with THUNDERING ON for Joseph O’Brien, who’s the mount of Pierre-Charles Boudot, who’s no stranger to success in this race. Three-year-olds have a very strong record in this race, given the allowances, particularly those that are drawn well, which is the case for her, being birthed in stall three. She’s progressed this term markedly, with her clear highlight coming at Epsom in June, where she produced a bloodless display in the Oaks, winning on the bridle by three and three-quarters of a length. She bounced back to form last time out at the Curragh when winning the Group 2 Blandford Stakes, following a defeat in the Pretty Polly Stakes on her penultimate start. I think that she could still have a lot more to offer, and she’s also versatile ground-wise.
You could make a case for the majority of the field in a race of this calibre; Andrew Balding’s five-year-old mare Kalpana comes into the race at the top of her game. She’s won back-to-back Group 1s in her last two starts, which include a notable scalp of Calandagan in the King George on her penultimate start; that form would give her a serious chance. William Haggas’ Maltese Cross is another strong contender for the UK challenge; he’s a highly progressive three-year-old who was second in the Derby, before tasting Group 1 success at this track in the French Derby. Most recently, he won the Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York. A slight concern is that a three-year-old colt from the UK hasn’t won this race since Golden Horn’s success in 2015.
Aidan O’Brien sends three to take their chance this year, and out of those three, I think that Diamond Necklace could have the best chance, and she’s the mount of Christophe Soumillon. She won four Group 1s on the spin before a surprise defeat at Deauville last time out, where she was beaten two lengths by Aventure after going off the 2/5 favourite. She does have a wide draw to contend with here; however, if she’s back to her best, she’s a player. Ryan Moore opts for the Irish Derby winner Benevenuto Cellini; he’s clearly got plenty of ability; however, he’ll need to bounce back from a disappointing display in the Prix Neil here last time out, where he finished fifth of seven after also going off the 2/5 favourite. Concluding the O’Brien trio is Minnie Hauk, who you’d be foolish to completely write off under William Buick. She was sent off favourite for last year’s renewal, and ran a mighty race, finishing just a head second to Daryz. If she bounces back to that level of form, she could look a huge price at 25/1 at the time of writing. She hasn’t been seen to best effect throughout the summer, though.
Away from the market leader, Francis-Henri Graffard also sends Varandir to take his chance, and he’s set to be ridden by Clement Lecoeuvre. He commands respect in his own right, and was last seen finishing four and a half lengths in front of Benvenuto Cellini when winning the Prix Neil by a length and a quarter. He was also only three-quarters of a length behind Maltese Cross in the French Derby on his penultimate start, and this three-year-old colt by Zarak is likely to still be open to significant progression.
John Gosden won this race in 2015, 2017, and 2018 with Golden Horn and Enable, and he’ll be hoping that Friendly Soul can follow suit for him and son, Thady. She’s not on the same level as those previous winners for the yard; however, she’s still a very smart mare in her own right, and won the Group 1 Prix Vermeille here last time out. She’ll likely need to improve again here; however, she’s not without a chance at a big price. Oisin Murphy rides Bay City Roller for George Scott; he was firmly put in his place by Daryz last time out here. However, if the rain arrives, it would enhance his chances significantly. He won a German Group 1 on soft ground by seven lengths last year, and as stated previously, got the better of Jan Brueghel by ten lengths in the Coronation Cup on good-to-soft on his penultimate start.
Daryz – (15/8) (Win)
Thundering On – (10/1) (Each-Way)
