Breeders Cup 2016
Probably my favourite flat meeting of the season. Imagine a really fat individual getting told that Greggs are handing out sausage rolls for free, that’s the level of excitement i’m at for this one. I’ll start off with the Juvenile Turf on the Friday. Where there is a couple of AP O’Brien raiders in the field in Intelligent Cross and Lancaster Bomber, the latter followed stablemate Churchill home in the Dewhurst at odds of 66/1 and a repeat of that run would surely see him in the frame. They are both trading at around 5/1. Simon Crisford also enters one in this in Rodaini, unbeaten in his first 4 he was slightly disappointing at Newmarket when finishing 9th of 10 but is a big price for this at around 20/1 and could be worth an each way punt with Frankie Dettori on board. Next up is the Dirt Mile and there’s a short priced favourite in this in Dortmund. A shade of odds on around 10/11 with most places, he’s been a long way behind the hugely impressive California Chrome the last few times out before knocking up a few impressive wins himself justifying his short odds. However the horse i’ll be going with in this is Runhappy. He won six consecutive races last year including the Breeders Cup Sprint however he has been shrouded in controversy this year resulting in a change of trainer and all sorts which could put a few off, as well as his short priced disappointing run in 4th last time out. That being said I still think he’s a hugely impressive sort and trading at around 6/1 is definitely worth a go in my book. I’ll move on to the Juvenile Fillies Turf race next and favourite for this is the impressive Spain Burg. He lowered the colours of the highly thought of Fair Eva at Newmarket last time out with a very handy turn of foot and with Frankie on board again could be a big price at around 4/1 for this. However there are another couple of AP O’Brien raiders in this who you’d be foolish to write off in Roly Poly and Hydragena. Roly Poly has been second in both Group 1 and Group 2 company in her last two starts and it’s two seconds in two Group One’s for Hydragena which is very solid form. Both trading at around 5/1 each another couple for the each way book I reckon. Next up is the Distaff and heading the market for this is the extremely impressive Songbird. Unbeaten in all 11 stars so far and is trading at around what could be a huge 11/10 in some places. Stellar Wind and Beholder are both good horses but I honestly cant see them getting near Songbird here, I may well be wrong but if there was ever a horse that was screaming lump on this would be it. Mike Smith in the saddle, Songbird wins this for me and stretches the unbeaten run to 12. Moving on to Saturday and to the Juvenile Fillie’s race. If im being totally honest I don’t know much about this field only that Bob Baffert has got a couple in it in Noted and Quoted and American Gal. Both decent prices at around 11/2 and 8/1 they’ll probably be getting my backing through sheer lack of knowledge in the race and the fact that Bob is a master in his own rights. The Filly and Mare’s Turf is next and is headed by Chad Brown trained Lady Eli at around 5/2. I aren’t much for backing favourites over here unless they are top class horses however Irad Ortiz Jr. is probably my favourite American jockey and is a master of these tracks therefore I will be backing this one. AP O’Brien sends Yorkshire Oaks winner Seventh Heaven and Pretty Perfect whilst Sir Michael Stoute has Queen’s Trust in the line up. I’ll bypass the sprint as I haven’t really got a clue about the eight that are down to go in that and wouldn’t really know where to start however I will probably back the Bob Baffert horse Lord Nelson who has won his last four starts and is just about favouite at around 3/1. Another really open one next which is the Turf Sprint headed by AP O’Brien’s Washington DC. Consistent enough performer who was second in a Group 1 at the Arc meeting in the Chantilly not long ago. David O’Meara saddles Suedois in this with Danny Tudhope on board and Hugo Palmer sends Home Of The Brave over for it who is where I feel my money will be going at a huge 11/1. Although i’m not much Godolphin horses a lot of the time I think Home Of The Brave is a very decent horse a certain each way shout at them odds. Moving on to the Turf race and this is an absolute cracker with a name that I seem to mention every big flat meeting I cover heading the market in Found at 2/1. 10 starts this season and 8 within Group 1 company of which all she made the frame winning the biggest one of the lot in the Arc. Hugely impressive filly and write her off at your own peril as she is the dictionary definition of determination. She lowered the colours of Golden Horn here last year. Fomer Andre Fabre trained Flintshire is second favourite at around 5/2, he’d destroyed the field in his first three starts in the US but was soundly beaten at odds of 1/5 last time out and looked laboured which is a slight concern. Another O’Brien horse next is Highland Reel, like Found he’s raced in a lot of big races this campaign, winning the King George and coming second in the Arc being the highlights, has every chance to be there of thereabouts again. Further down the market is Sir Michael Stoute’s Ulysses. He won a Group 3 at Goodwood in the summer and Dettori rides, trading at around 10/1. The horse that defeated Flintshire comfortably is next in Al Shaqab’s Ectot. Todd Pletcher puts Jose Ortiz back on board and a repeat of that last time out performance could see a big run at odds of 12/1. Arlington Million winner Mondialste is also down to go in this and is at huge odds of 16/1. Danny Tudhope will be on board the David O’Meara raider and is absolutely worth an each way punt at that price as he seems to love it over here. Onto the Mile next and the race i’m potentially looking forward to most. The battle between Limato and Tepin. I have been quite critical at the choice to run Limato in this but if anyone can pull it out the bag he can. Hugely impressive in France and the July Cup, he’ll get his perfect ground here and this track should suit him despite the up in trip. He has run over a mile before when 4th on his first start of the season and I believe he can beat Tepin here. It is a big task though as although Mark Casse’s mare lost her first race in eight last time out she is still one of the best mare’s on the planet. She’ll be extremely hard to beat in her own back yard and Limato will potentially have to pull out a career best. O’Brien also runs Alice Springs in this who like so many of his horses has performed admirably in big races all campaign. Don’t be surprised to see her up there at the end. Last of all we have the Breeders Cup Classic which last year saw the immense American Pharaoh destroy a field in his final race. I believe it’s going to be a repeat performance this time around for Victor Espionza aboard California Chrome who is trading as big as 10/11 in places which I genuinely believe is a big price for him. He was outstanding when brushing Dortmund aside easily last time and I believe he’ll do the same to the likes of Arrogate and Frosted here.